Variance

Basic Definition

Variance is a concept in poker that indicates how much the results deviate from the expected value (the long-term average profit). In the short term, luck plays a significant role, so wins and losses often do not align with the expected value.

Specific Situation

For example, if you go all-in with a pocket pair of , even if your opponent calls with , you should statistically win about 81% of the time. However, in the short term, you might still lose, and that's the effect of variance.

In a tournament, there are times when you go all-in with strong hands multiple times but still get knocked out consecutively. This is a situation where, despite having a positive expected value, variance causes the results to fluctuate significantly.

Important Information

Volatility greatly affects short-term outcomes, so it's important to stay calm and play with a long-term perspective.

To accommodate variance, proper bankroll management is essential. Without it, there's a risk of going bankrupt even if the expected value is positive.

Examples of Term Usage

"I've been experiencing a lot of variance lately, and I've lost hands I should have won multiple times, but I'll keep playing, trusting in the expected value."