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基礎知識

Beginner Poker Learning Roadmap to Get Better From Fundamentals to Cash Games and TournamentsBasics

Beginner Poker Learning Roadmap to Get Better From Fundamentals to Cash Games and Tournaments

You’ve learned the rules of poker, but you’re not sure what to study to actually get better at cash games or tournaments. This article gives you a clear learning roadmap that shows what to learn and in what order, so you can improve efficiently. Follow this roadmap and you’ll build real skill without losing direction, whether you prefer cash games or tournaments.1. Fundamentals: Build a Strong Poker Foundation FirstCash games and tournaments follow different formats, but they share many core concepts. Start by mastering the fundamentals that apply to both.1.1 Learn PreflopYou play preflop every single hand, so it has a huge impact on your results. That’s why preflop is the first street you should prioritize. Here are the key points to learn first.When no one has entered the pot yet, open-raise instead of open-calling.The earlier your position, the more hands you should fold.Playing too many hands is a mistake.Many new players want to play lots of hands and end up losing money by entering pots with weak holdings. Start by studying which hands to play from each position. Once you understand your opening ranges, move on to how to respond when someone raises before you.1.2 Learn How to Play the FlopAfter you understand preflop, study flop strategy next. Preflop decisions depend only on your two hole cards, but on the flop your strategy changes dramatically depending on the board texture. That’s why learning to read boards is essential.To understand board texture, focus on these factors.The highest cardHow connected the ranks areThe suits on boardWhether the board is pairedUse these features to think about which player is more likely to have strong hands, and choose actions based on that.1.3 Learn How to Play Turn and RiverNext, study turn and river play. You reach these streets less often than preflop and flop, but the pot is usually larger, so one mistake can cost you a lot. Common turn and river mistakes include:Overestimating the strength of your handTrying to put your opponent on one exact handIn poker, you need to consider your opponent’s possible range and estimate how strong your hand is against that range. A small mindset shift helps you avoid overvaluing hands, value-betting too thin, and losing money in one-sided spots.1.4 Learn DefenseWhen you face a bet or raise and choose to continue by calling or raising (instead of folding), that’s defense. You must defend at the right frequency. If you defend too much, you lose money. If you fold too much, you also lose money. Study how your defense frequency and defending hands should change based on bet size and raise size.2. Cash Game TrackAfter you learn the fundamentals, you can branch into a cash game track or a tournament track. Here’s the cash game track. In cash games, you aim to make decisions that maximize the expected value of your chip stack at all times. Compared to tournaments, you often play with deeper stacks, so focus your study on those situations. We recommend learning in this order.100BB single-raised pots (SRP)Start with SRPs (spots where there is one preflop raise), because you’ll play them most often. Learn a solid, leak-free strategy based on GTO.100BB 3-bet and 4-bet potsNext, study 3-bet and 4-bet pots. Pots get bigger than in SRPs, so you need to plan more often with all-in scenarios in mind.Opponent-specific exploitsExploitative play means targeting weaknesses in your opponent’s strategy. Study how to adjust based on different player types. Classic examples include bluffing less against players who call too much, and bluffing more against players who fold too much.Deep stacks (150BB+)When stacks get deeper, you can win or lose a lot more in a single hand, which changes hand values and optimal lines. Study how your strategy should adapt.Recommended articles:https://japan.gtowizard.com/blog/principles-of-gto/https://japan.gtowizard.com/blog/exploitative-dynamics/3. Tournament TrackBecause tournament payouts depend on your finishing position, you need tournament-specific knowledge. This learning order works well.Tournament fundamentalsStudy these key concepts that matter in tournament play.ICMIn tournaments, your chip stack does not translate linearly into prize money EV. One model used to estimate prize money EV from chip stacks is ICM (Independent Chip Model). In late stages, you must choose actions while accounting for ICM.BFBF stands for Bubble Factor. It measures the gap between the downside of losing chips and the upside of gaining chips. A larger BF means losing chips hurts more.RPRP stands for Risk Premium. It indicates how much additional equity you need on top of chip-only requirements to justify taking a risk.It’s difficult to calculate these values precisely during play, but estimating them roughly helps you choose actions that increase your prize money EV.How to play 30BB and below in chipEVChipEV is the expected value of chips you gain from an action. In tournaments, chips and prize money EV don’t always align, but when you’re far from the money, making decisions based on chipEV often increases your long-term prize money EV. First, practice playing to maximize chips.How ranges change with BFWhen BF is high, optimal hand ranges change. Study how correct ranges shift based on your stack size and your opponent’s stack size.How to play 30BB and below in $EV$EV refers to how much an action changes your expected prize money. In late-stage tournaments, you’ll often see spots where chipEV is positive but $EV is negative. Study how to maximize prize money EV with the right decisions.Recommended article:https://note.com/gaku_btn/n/n42d355a709efWith POKER Q'z, you can study the poker fundamentals introduced here through quiz-style training. Build a strong foundation and level up your game.ConclusionThis article explained what to study first to become a stronger poker player. Poker is a game of incomplete information, so it’s not always easy to judge whether your play was correct. To choose the best actions consistently, you need solid fundamentals and logical thinking. Use this roadmap to train efficiently and keep improving.

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Are You Making Giant Bets? Bad Poker Habits You Should Fix Now Part 2Basics

Are You Making Giant Bets? Bad Poker Habits You Should Fix Now Part 2

Have you ever regretted a hand?Many players can follow preflop range charts, but once the board comes down they think, “I have no idea what to do postflop…”I was exactly the same when I started. And because the pot grows quickly postflop, one mistake can be costly. Maybe you’ve faced a big bet, tank-called, then immediately realized your hand was never good and thought, “Why did I call there if I’d just stayed calm?” If you study postflop in advance, you can reduce those painful, high-impact mistakes and keep more chips in your stack.In the previous article, we covered two bad preflop habits you should fix right now to move beyond the beginner stage. In this follow-up, we’ll look at two postflop bad habits beginners should fix first: “auto-calling” and “Gian betting.”Note: These are not standard poker terms. They are labels used only in this article.Fix these, and you’ll take a real first step toward becoming a stronger, more confident player.https://pokerqz.com/blog/poker-beginner-bad-habits-0011. Bad Habit 1: Auto-CallingYou’re in the big blind with As 5h. The button raises to 250 and you call. Including the small blind that folded, the pot is 550. You check, and the button bets 275 (half pot).Do you ever think, “I have an Ace, the strongest card. If an Ace hits, I can win, so I’ll just call for now”?Stop making that “auto-call.”Calling just because you have an Ace is a great way to bleed chips. Cut it out immediately.How often does an Ace actually hit the board? The answer is only about 12%. That means you’ll hit an Ace only around 1 time in 8. And even if you do hit, you can still lose to a better Ace kicker like Ac Tc, or to two pair or better like Ks 3s. In other words, even when you hit your Ace, it’s not automatically the “best hand.”Here’s a simple way to estimate the chance of improving your hand. It requires no difficult math, and even if you’re not confident with numbers, you can use it right away.The 2%–4% Rule for Quick Equity EstimatesOn the flop and turn, you can estimate the chance of hitting your outs by the river like this:Flop: (number of outs) × 4 (%)Turn: (number of outs) × 2 (%)Simple, right? This works because a standard deck has 52 cards. Now let’s apply it to the spot above. You hold As, so the remaining Aces are Ah Ad Ac, which gives you 3 outs. Since we’re on the flop:3 × 4 = 12 (%)So you’ll hit an Ace only about 12% of the time, or roughly 1 time in 8.Beginners often auto-call too much. Before you call, pause for a moment and think. The 2%–4% rule is extremely useful, so memorize it and start applying it in real hands.2. Bad Habit 2: Gian BettingThe unbeatable Gian vs. the helpless Nobita: bet when strong, check when weakImagine a poker table where Gian and Nobita are sitting in front of you. Gian always has the strongest possible hand, and Nobita always has no pair (just a high card). How would you play against them?1) When Gian bets, you know you’re always behind, so you fold every hand.2) When Nobita keeps checking, you know he’s extremely weak, so even with a weak hand you bluff and make him fold.That’s probably what you’d do. If you already know what they have, the decisions become easy. But then Gian never gets called, and Nobita always gets pushed off the pot, so neither of them wins chips.Now ask yourself this:Are your actions turning you into “Gian and Nobita” too?Let’s look at a similar spot. You’re in the big blind with 3s 3h. The button raises to 250 and you call. Including the small blind that folded, the pot is 550. Then you get lucky and the flop brings 3c, giving you three of a kind. You think, “This is super strong, I should bet big,” and you lead for 550 (a pot-sized bet). But here’s the truth:Stop making that “Gian bet.”If you bet huge only when you have a strong hand, you’re basically telling your opponent: “When I bet big, I’m strong. When I don’t, I’m weak.” That’s exactly the Gian and Nobita problem. Even though you flopped a powerful hand like trips, your opponent will often fold immediately and you won’t win much at all.To avoid falling into the Gian betting trap, keep these points in mind:• Consider checking sometimes even with strong hands• Consider bluffing when your hand is extremely weak (like no pair)Donk BettingA bet like the one above, where the caller bets into the preflop raiser, is called a donk bet. When beginners use donk bets, they often lose money, so in general, avoid donk betting.Remember: “If you call, then check.”If you want to understand why donk betting is usually a mistake and take your game to the next level, check out the article below for a detailed explanation.https://pokerqz.com/blog/donk

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Tournament vs Ring Games: What’s the Difference in Poker Rules for Beginners?Basics

Tournament vs Ring Games: What’s the Difference in Poker Rules for Beginners?

Do you prefer tournaments or ring games? Tournaments are full of all-ins and fast-paced action, while ring games let you play deep-stacked poker and think through every street. Each format has its own appeal. In this article, we’ll clearly explain the key differences in rules and strategy so you can enjoy both tournament poker and cash games even more.1. What Are Tournaments and Ring Games?TournamentsA tournament is a battle-royale style poker format where players get eliminated as soon as they lose all of their chips. Even if you were the chip leader a moment ago, one lost all-in can knock you out immediately. As the tournament progresses, the blinds increase, so you often end up playing with a short stack except in the early stages. In addition, most tournaments include an “ante,” a forced contribution separate from the blinds, which encourages you to play more hands.Ring Games / Cash GamesThis is poker where the goal is simply to increase the chips (money) in front of you. Unlike tournaments, the blinds do not go up over time, so you can play deep-stacked and take your time. In many cash games, the casino also takes a “rake” from the pot. “Ring game” and “cash game” originally mean the same thing, but in Japan, “ring game” often refers specifically to games that do not involve real-money wagering.For more on “ante” and “rake,” check out these articles:https://pokerqz.com/blog/antehttps://pokerqz.com/blog/rake2. Difference 1: Stack DepthThe size of your stack (how many big blinds you have) is arguably the most important difference between tournaments and ring games. In tournaments, blinds keep rising, so you’ll often play with a short stack outside the early levels. Let’s look at what changes when stacks get shallow.2.1. All-ins Become Extremely PowerfulWhen stacks get shallow, your stack becomes relatively small compared to the pot. As a result, unlike deep-stack play, you need to go all-in much more often. If you fear elimination too much and hesitate to shove, you’ll miss profitable spots. Look for chances to apply pressure and get your chips in. Once you drop below 20bb, you should play with the possibility of open-shoving preflop in mind.2.2 Hand Values ChangeWith a short stack, even if you make a big hand, you can’t win that many chips. That’s why speculative hands that rely on making strong but low-frequency hands, such as 9h 8h, lose value. Since preflop all-ins happen more often, hands that are harder to play postflop but have relatively high preflop equity, such as small pocket pairs like 5s 5d and ace-x hands like Ah 4c, become much more valuable.3. Difference 2: The Value of ChipsIn a ring game, the size of your stack directly represents its value. A 1,000-chip stack is worth exactly twice as much as a 500-chip stack. In tournaments, however, that’s not always true. Even if you double your stack, your expected prize value does not necessarily double.Here’s an example.You are playing a tournament where the top 5 players win a seat to a major event (a “satellite tournament”), and there are 10 players left.The stacks are:Chip leader: 10,000You: 5,000The remaining 8 players: 1,000 each.In this tournament, 1st place and 5th place have exactly the same value. You just need to finish in the top 5. In other words, your stack’s value is determined by your “probability of finishing in the top 5.” The chip leader has twice as many chips as you, but do they really have twice the probability of finishing in the top 5? Of course not. Both the chip leader and you are very likely to finish in the top 5, probably well over 90%.This is why, in tournaments, you must play to maximize prize value, not just to accumulate chips. In this example, if the chip leader shoves on you, you should often fold even As Ad. As you get closer to the money or a seat, shift your focus away from building a bigger stack and toward maximizing the prizes you can realistically secure.ConclusionIn this article, we explained the differences in goals and strategy between tournaments and ring games/cash games. In summary:In tournaments, stacks get shallow, so all-ins become a key weaponIn tournaments, your goal is not simply to win more chips, but to maximize the prizes you can earnMany beginners in tournaments fold too much because they fear busting, and they slowly bleed chips to the blinds and antes. Have the courage to go all-in when the spot is right.If you’ve only played one format, use these ideas to try the other. You might discover a whole new side of poker that you enjoy.

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Learn the Basics of Preflop Strategy in PokerBasics

Learn the Basics of Preflop Strategy in Poker

In this article, we’ll cover the essential preflop concepts you need to study poker effectively, with a focus on how to understand and learn hand ranges.You can play poker without knowing preflop ranges, but if you want to enjoy the game at a higher level and start winning consistently, understanding and tracking ranges becomes a key skill.Get the Big Picture of Open RangesMany beginners who already understand the rules try to memorize every starting hand range perfectly from day one. Because ranges are so large and detailed, a lot of players end up overwhelmed and give up.When you break down 6-max ranges one by one, you’ll find things like:・Open-raise ranges by position・Big blind defense ranges vs an open raise・Raise ranges after an open raise, such as 3-betsThat alone adds up to more than 40 different charts.And each chart includes multiple branches for raise, call, and fold actions, different raise sizes by position, and even mixed-frequency hands that you sometimes play and sometimes don’t. There are many layers of complexity.For now, let’s set those complicated details aside and start by learning the broader rules that explain preflop strategy.Instead of memorizing ranges like multiplication tables, you’ll learn the logic behind why ranges are built the way they are. Once you understand that logic, ranges become much easier to see and remember.How Ranges Expand by PositionLet’s start with open-raise ranges. An open raise means you raise when no one has entered the pot before you. If you’re not confident with the terminology, check this article first....Link to terminology article...In poker, there’s a core principle: the fewer players left to act behind you, the wider your range can be.This may sound obvious, but you don’t know what hands the players behind you were dealt.The more players still to act, the higher the chance that someone wakes up with a strong hand.Because ranges widen as you move closer to the button, let’s begin with the tightest position: UTG.Note: In this article, we’ll use standard 6-max cash game ranges from GTO Wizard as examples.UTGOrange hands are open raises, and light blue hands are folds.UTG’s open range is very tight. You can only play about 17% of all starting hands.First, memorize the area outlined in green: a 3x3 square with Q as the outer edge. You always play the hands inside this square.Next, also remember the red rectangle that includes the adjacent 3x3 block. Keep these two shapes in mind first.Now let’s check HJ and later positions the same way.HJIn HJ, the green area expands to 4x4.The red area stays similar, and its vertical expansion follows the green square.COThe green area becomes 5x5.The red area expands one cell to the right.BTNThe green area becomes 6x6.The red area expands two cells to the right.As you can see, the range gradually widens from UTG to BTN.This is strongly tied to how many players are left to act behind you.UTG has five players behind with unknown hands and unknown actions. BTN only has two. Since UTG faces a higher chance that someone holds a strong hand, UTG must play tighter, while BTN can open wider.Remember the pattern: the green area expands by one step each position, and the red area expands in a consistent way. Vertically it tracks the green square, and horizontally it expands by 0, 1, then 2.If you have extra time, memorize the remaining hands too.You’ll notice that suited Ax hands and pocket pairs appear across all positions (sometimes at low frequency), meaning you can play them from anywhere in many strategies.When you look at ranges this way, you can cover most of the open-raise range quickly. Use the same process for other positions, then fill in the smaller details afterward to complete your UTG-to-BTN open ranges.By learning the majority of the range first and adding the remaining hands later, you’ll memorize ranges much more efficiently than trying to learn everything at once.Playing from the Small BlindBecause the small blind is guaranteed to play heads-up against the big blind, some strategies include a lot of limping ranges.In this article, to make comparisons easier, we’ll look at a simplified strategy that only uses two actions: open raise or fold.SB 3bb openThe SB has even fewer players behind than the BTN, but there are two key differences:・You’ve already posted a blind・You’ll be out of position against the BBBecause you’ve already posted a blind, you get better pot odds, which increases how often you can enter the pot compared to other positions.If you want to learn pot odds in detail, read this article....(Link to pot odds article)...Being out of position against the BB reduces how often you should enter the pot.These factors combine so that, in practice, the SB range ends up being built from almost the same group of hands as the BTN.When you think in terms of raise-or-fold, remember that SB and BTN ranges are essentially the same.Playing from the Big BlindThe big blind has unique advantages: you’ve already posted a blind, and by calling a raise you can close the preflop action yourself. As a result, the BB calls far more often than any other position.You’ll even see hands like 74s and 63s that you would never play from other positions. The range looks wide and hard to memorize, but if you break it down step by step, it becomes much easier to understand.BB vs BTN openBecause playable hands split into raises and calls, start by memorizing the overall set of hands you can continue with.The BB’s continuing range is very similar to the BTN’s open-raise range, but it adds hands like 85s and 74s, while removing some offsuit Ax and A8-type hands.To separate raises from calls, you first need to understand the nature of the BB’s 3-bet range.Here is the SB’s range versus a BTN open raise.SB 3bet vs BTN openThe overall 3-bet frequency isn’t that different, but the composition is very different.The BB doesn’t 3-bet hands like K9s and Q9s as often, and instead uses hands like K3s and Q3s. Meanwhile, the SB tends to 3-bet in a more straightforward way, starting from the strongest hands.Why does this difference happen?The BB’s 3-bet range is shaped mainly by two factors: no players are left to act behind you, and you’ve already posted a blind.Because of these factors, the BB can defend with a very wide calling range compared to other positions.In other words, the BB can call with weaker hands that wouldn’t be profitable without the blind already invested.From another perspective, if you 3-bet all your strong hands, your calling range becomes extremely weak. To avoid that, GTO strategies often move some hands that could 3-bet into the call range to stay balanced.The BB’s 3-bet range typically includes premium hands like AA and KK that are too strong to just call, plus some weaker hands like Q3s and J6s that balance the range.The BB range may look complicated at first, but once you understand this concept, ranges become much easier to read and memorize.Preflop hand strength alone doesn’t decide who wins in poker. The game continues after the flop, so you need a strategy that accounts for what happens next.Understand Raise SizesNext, let’s talk about raise sizing.A standard open-raise size is usually 2 to 3 big blinds. You can use one consistent size across positions, but in equilibrium play, using position-specific sizes can produce higher EV.When GTO changes sizes by position, it tends to use smaller opens in early position and larger opens in late position. Just like range width, this also relates to the players behind you.At first glance, larger open sizes may seem better because they often increase EV when everyone folds or calls. However, when you compare the EV after facing a 3-bet, smaller open sizes reduce the EV loss.If EV feels a bit difficult, check this article first....Link to EV article...Since you’ll have to fold your weaker hands after getting 3-bet, smaller opens from early position make more sense.To improve at poker, you need to think beyond just the hands you can enter with. You also need to plan for what happens next and view the entire range as a system.In the next section, we’ll look at how to respond when you get raised.Learn How to Respond When You Get RaisedSo far, we’ve focused on open ranges. But after you open-raise and someone raises you, what should you pay attention to?Below is UTG’s action after opening, then facing a BTN 3-bet, with everyone else folding.UTG vs BTN 3betPurple is all-in, orange is a smaller 4-bet, green is call, and light blue is fold.Because there are four action branches, this can feel more complex and harder to memorize than open ranges. But here too, start by understanding the broad structure first.The most important point to remember is that you are folding more than 50% of your opening range.The exact number changes with positions, but in most cases, the opener folds 50% to 70% versus a 3-bet.It may feel unfair to fold more than half your hands after tightening up in UTG, but your opponent also entered the pot with a selective range. In fact, you can see below that BTN continues with a range that is stronger overall than UTG’s opening range.BTN vs UTG 2bbWhen you learn ranges versus a 3-bet, start by focusing on this idea: fold the hands that don’t reach the top 50% of strength within that range. Many beginners play too many hands preflop, and when reviewing hands, the biggest issue is often that the preflop entry itself was incorrect.Preflop mistakes don’t always get discussed, and you may not notice them on your own. But they’re also one of the easiest leaks to fix. If you’re struggling to win at poker, reviewing your preflop decisions first may improve your results quickly.Go Beyond MemorizationWe’ve covered practical ways to memorize the broad shape of ranges, but you shouldn’t treat hand ranges as something you simply memorize and apply blindly. What matters is not how strong your hand feels in isolation, but how strong it is compared to your opponent’s range.For example, if your opponent’s 3-bet range is tighter than equilibrium, you should fold more. If your opponent only includes strong hands when they use a large raise size, you also need to fold more hands.Do you need to memorize every preflop chart perfectly to become strong at poker? Not at all.Even among pros who make a living from poker, it’s rare to find someone who has every preflop range memorized perfectly and can recall them with complete accuracy. The fastest path to improvement is to interpret range construction in a realistic way and organize it in your own system.Once you understand the core principles and can apply them in real games, you may discover a whole new way to enjoy poker.In this article, we covered the minimum essentials and the key principles you should know.When you study range charts, try to memorize them while keeping these ideas in mind.

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How to Start Learning Poker the Right Way for Beginners 2026 Updated GuideBasics

How to Start Learning Poker the Right Way for Beginners 2026 Updated Guide

Introduction: How Do You Actually Get Better at Poker?Hello everyone!This guide is for players who have learned the rules of poker but still feel stuck and aren’t sure how to improve. Below, you’ll find a clear roadmap for building poker skills efficiently.Poker is a deep card game where you win by combining strategy and psychology. But because luck is always involved, it’s not easy to judge whether your decision was correct even when you win the pot. The real question is whether you chose the highest expected value play.To become a strong poker player, you need the ability to think through each situation and consistently find the best action. Building that skill requires knowledge of poker fundamentals (like pot odds and how the game works), GTO strategy, and exploitative adjustments.In this article, we’ll break down how to study poker and learn strategy in a structured way, with practical approaches you can apply right away. We’ll also share recommended articles and tools throughout.Poker is a game you can reliably improve at if you put in the work. Use this roadmap to sharpen your skills efficiently, enjoy the game more, and become a more winning player.What This Article CoversThis article is organized into the sections below. Each topic is explained in detail, along with helpful tools and recommended resources.FundamentalsCore concepts you need to improve at poker. We’ll cover common beginner leaks, foundational ideas like pot odds and MDF (minimum defense frequency), and how poker variance works. We’ll also introduce useful articles and tools.GTO StrategyGTO (Game Theory Optimal) is one of the most important concepts in modern poker. This section explains what GTO is, why you should learn it, and a practical step-by-step process for studying it, including tools you can use.Exploitative StrategyHow to spot opponents’ weaknesses and maximize profit by exploiting them. Using GTO as a baseline, we’ll show how to apply exploits in real situations with concrete examples.By the end, you’ll have a structured path from poker fundamentals to advanced strategy, so you can improve efficiently. Use the knowledge and tools introduced at each step and aim to become a stronger player.1. Learn the FundamentalsThe first step to improving at poker is building a solid foundation. In this section, we’ll explain common beginner mistakes, key concepts you need to know, and the nature of poker as a game. Once you understand these basics, you’ll be able to learn GTO strategy and exploitative strategy much more effectively.1.1 How to Move Beyond Beginner LevelWhen you only know the rules, it’s easy to develop bad habits without realizing it. For example:Limping (entering the pot preflop by calling)Cold-calling a 3-bet (calling after someone opens and another player re-raises)Donk betting (betting before the preflop aggressor acts)In most cases, these actions have low expected value. Fixing these habits is one of the fastest ways to stop playing like a beginner.Key points beginners should focus on:Limp less: Raise more often to create more situations where you have the initiative.Avoid calling too much with weak hands: Don’t force yourself into pots. Build the habit of playing higher-EV hands.Don’t donk bet: Get used to checking to the player who last bet or raised on the previous street.Recommended article:https://note.com/goole/n/n0623e8fcab031.2 Core Concepts: Odds, MDF, Alpha, and MoreTo play poker strategically, you must understand basic mathematical concepts like pot odds and minimum defense frequency (MDF). These tools help you evaluate risk and reward objectively.Pot odds basics:Pot odds: A metric used to decide whether calling is profitable based on your equity.MDF (minimum defense frequency): The minimum frequency you must defend so your opponent’s bluffs don’t become automatically profitable.Alpha (α): The fold equity required for a bluff to be profitable.Understanding these concepts is extremely important. They help you learn why GTO strategies can’t be exploited and how to apply that logic to your own play. For example, when bluff-catching, MDF can guide you toward more accurate decisions.Recommended article:https://japan.gtowizard.com/blog/mathematical-misconceptions-in-poker/1.3 Understanding the Nature of the GameIn poker, correct decisions don’t always lead to immediate results. You need to understand variance and develop the mental discipline to avoid being controlled by short-term outcomes. This is especially important in tournaments, where you’ll experience major upswings and downswings and must think long-term.For example, imagine a $100 buy-in tournament with 100 players. If a player with true break-even skill plays 100 tournaments, a simulation might look like this:Tournament results simulationThe vertical axis shows profit/loss ($), and the horizontal axis shows the number of tournaments played.As you can see in Figure 1, even with the same skill level, results can swing wildly.That’s the nature of tournament poker.So if you want to improve, you must understand this reality, stop obsessing over short-term results, and focus on whether you played your hands as well as possible.Recommended resources:https://japan.gtowizard.com/blog/variance-and-bankroll-management/https://www.primedope.com/tournament-variance-calculator/2. Learn GTO, One of the Most Important Concepts in PokerIf you want to improve seriously, you should learn GTO (Game Theory Optimal) strategy. GTO is a theoretical approach that helps you play in a way that can’t be exploited. By studying it, you reduce your own leaks and build a stronger baseline strategy. This section explains what GTO is, why it matters, how to study it, and which tools can help.2.1 What Is GTO?GTO (Game Theory Optimal) refers to equilibrium play in poker that cannot be exploited by an opponent. No matter how your opponent plays, a GTO-based strategy minimizes your losses in theory.For example, by balancing your bluffing frequency and calling frequency correctly, you make it difficult for opponents to predict and punish your tendencies. In that sense, GTO is the theoretical foundation of poker strategy.Recommended GTO content:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aUm9smMiV3Ehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vxTxqj4ssqIhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tdgTOF1voCYhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BVM4nrfOB6Ehttps://note.com/goole/n/ndb36157966dd2.2 Why You Should Learn GTOHere are the main reasons to study GTO strategy:You become harder to exploitIf you play based on GTO principles, even strong opponents won’t be able to exploit you easily. This is crucial for stable long-term results.It becomes the foundation for exploitative playWhen you understand GTO, you can measure how far an opponent deviates from equilibrium. Spotting those deviations lets you exploit them more effectively.It stabilizes your mindsetBecause GTO-based decisions are mathematically grounded, you can keep playing confidently without being overly affected by short-term outcomes.Recommended article:https://note.com/nekochan0214/n/n2ad07b4b82062.3 A Step-by-Step Process to Study GTOGTO can feel complex at first, but you can learn it efficiently by following a clear process.Step 1: Master the fundamentalsStart by learning core concepts like pot odds, MDF, and bluffing frequency. This creates the foundation you need to understand GTO outputs.Step 2: Start with simplified strategiesYou don’t need to learn everything at once. For example, fix your bet sizes to one standard size, or focus on the positions you play most often. Simplify first, then expand.Step 3: Use toolsTo study GTO in practice, use apps and training tools. They help you learn optimal decisions in specific scenarios and build pattern recognition faster.2.4 Useful ToolsHere are a few tools that make learning GTO much easier:POKER Q’zA beginner-to-intermediate friendly training platform that makes it easy to study GTO strategy. A major benefit is that you can view AI-generated explanations for each question.It also includes features to identify leaks through play data analysis, structured study plans, and progress tracking through your play logs.Download here:https://pokerqz.com/?utm_source=hp&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=generalGTO WizardA powerful tool for studying GTO strategy. It offers detailed hand analysis and scenario-based solutions so players can learn optimal lines. It’s widely used by intermediate and advanced players who want to level up their poker strategy.Official site:https://gtowizard.com/ja/3. Spot Opponent Tendencies: Learn Exploitative StrategyTo win at poker, you need to identify how opponents play and maximize profit by exploiting their mistakes. This section explains the core ideas behind exploitative strategy and how to apply it in real games.3.1 The Difference Between GTO and Exploitative PlayIn poker, GTO strategy aims for a theoretical equilibrium that cannot be exploited, regardless of how your opponent plays. Exploitative strategy, on the other hand, focuses on maximizing profit by targeting an opponent’s tendencies and mistakes.In short:GTO strategy: A strategy designed to prevent you from being exploited. It provides a stable baseline for long-term results.Exploitative strategy: A strategy that finds opponent weaknesses and profits when they deviate from theoretically correct play.For example, if an opponent bluffs far too often, exploitative play means you call more frequently to capture that extra bluff value.Recommended resources:https://youtu.be/xnii87T97CYhttps://japan.gtowizard.com/blog/principles-of-gto/3.2 How to Think About ExploitsUse the steps below to build an exploitative strategy.1. Observe your opponent’s tendenciesThe first step is observation. Look for patterns like:Preflop tendencies: For example, limping often or 3-betting too rarely.Postflop tendencies: C-betting too frequently, then becoming passive on the turn or river.Bluff frequency: Do they overbluff in certain spots, or are they heavily value-weighted?2. Analyze the mistakesBased on what you observe, identify what they’re doing wrong.Preflop mistakes: If their ranges are too wide, increase your 3-bets and attack more aggressively.Bluffing mistakes: If they bluff too much, widen your calling range.Folding mistakes: If they fold too often, increase your betting frequency.3. Adjust from a GTO baselineExploitative play works best when you start from a GTO baseline and then shift your strategy based on opponent tendencies. For example, if an opponent folds too often on the turn, you can bet more in spots where GTO might check and gain extra profit.4. Test it in real gamesApply your adjustments, then review the results. Exploits vary by opponent, so stay flexible and keep adapting. If your opponent notices and changes their strategy, you must respond appropriately.Recommended article:https://japan.gtowizard.com/blog/exploitative-dynamics/3.3 Concrete Examples of ExploitsHere are a few practical examples of exploitative strategy:Against opponents who bluff too much: Increase your calling frequency to profit from their bluffs. Use MDF as a reference, then intentionally adjust your defense frequency based on their tendencies.Against opponents who fold too much: Bluff more on the turn and river to maximize profit. Compared to GTO, expanding your bluff range can be very effective.Against opponents who limp too often preflop: Raise with a wider range to take the initiative. This is especially effective if they tend to play passively postflop.3.4 Key CautionsKeep these points in mind when using exploitative strategy:Your opponent may adjust: They might notice what you’re doing and change their strategy. Keep observing and adapt quickly.Don’t over-adjust: If you push exploits too far, you can become exploitable yourself. Stay aware of GTO balance as your safety net.Exploitative strategy can generate big profits when you target opponent weaknesses effectively. Build a strong GTO foundation, then make smart adjustments for each opponent to become a stronger overall player.Reference Links and ToolsFundamentalsFundamentals articleMathematical misconceptions in pokerVariance and bankroll managementTournament variance simulation toolGTO Strategy and ToolsBeginner-friendly: Learn poker easily with a new series! How to think about correct preflop play using GTO (YouTube)Preflop: Memorize this and get ahead fast. The four simple preflop rules (YouTube)Betting: Three bet types advanced players use. Learn GTO through a quiz (YouTube)Betting: What is a polar bet? Common beginner mistakes explained (YouTube)Article on learning GTO 1Article on learning GTO 2Poker Q’z official siteGTO Wizard official siteExploitative StrategyPoker strategy through the lens of game theory (YouTube)Core principles of GTOExploitative dynamics

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What’s Your Personality? Rediscover Yourself Through Your Poker Playing StyleBasics

What’s Your Personality? Rediscover Yourself Through Your Poker Playing Style

IntroductionWhen you hear “poker,” what comes to mind? Gentlemen in tuxedos dealing cards with expressionless, mask-like faces? Or players in a corner of a casino, stacking chips under dazzling lights in a cloud of excitement? Poker certainly has a glamorous image—but at its core, it’s a deeply human game where psychology and strategy are packed into a deceptively simple format.In poker, these four terms are commonly used to describe player tendencies.LoosePlays a lot of handsTightPlays a narrow, selective rangeAggressiveBets and raises often; applies pressurePassiveChecks and calls often; avoids taking the leadBy combining them, most poker play styles fall into four broad categories:Loose AggressiveLoose PassiveTight AggressiveTight PassiveInterestingly, these four categories don’t just describe how someone plays poker—they can also reflect personality and behavior patterns.In this article, we’ll treat these four styles as “personality types” and use poker as a lens to reflect on yourself. Which type sounds most like you?1. Loose Aggressive (LAG)The life-of-the-party typeLoose Aggressive, often called LAG, is the type that plays frequently (loose) and also fires bets and raises aggressively (aggressive). In poker, a LAG jumps into pots with a wide range and looks for chances to build stacks by applying constant pressure. For opponents, this style is hard to read and exhausting to play against.In everyday life, this is the person who shows up to parties, meetups, and events, talks to strangers without hesitation, and keeps the energy high. You’re a natural mood-maker—but people might also say you “cast too wide a net” and make it hard to tell what you really want. Whether at the table or in real life, your biggest strengths are action and boldness.2. Loose PassiveThe “nice person” who can’t say noThis type also has a high participation rate (loose), but rarely takes proactive action (passive). In poker, you call because you want to see flops and stay involved, but you don’t often bet or raise to take control. As a result, you can end up letting opponents dictate the action and getting dragged into unprofitable pots.In daily life, you tend to say “Sure!” when invited, but you rarely make the plan yourself or push your own suggestions. When a group can’t decide where to go, you’re the one saying, “I’m good with whatever” or “I’ll follow you.” Before you know it, you may get swept along and stuck with the short end of the stick. Still, your warmth and adaptability help you fit in easily—and that’s a real strength.3. Tight Aggressive (TAG)The planner who picks spots and attacksTight Aggressive, known as TAG, selects hands carefully (tight) and then raises hard when it’s time to compete (aggressive). This is one of the most fundamental and reliable poker styles, and many strong players prefer it. You move when it matters, avoid waste, and aim for efficient results.Personality-wise, you don’t show up to every casual gathering—but you do choose the right business event or hobby meetup, and when you go, you make it count. You may also be careful with money: you think, “Do I really need this?” and then buy something high-quality when it’s worth it. Rational, efficient, and focused on making the best decision to succeed, you tend to build solid results over time.4. Tight PassiveThe cautious, safety-first type who often misses valueLast is Tight Passive. You enter pots only with carefully chosen hands (tight), but you don’t apply pressure (passive). In poker, even when you pick up a strong hand, you often check and call instead of betting and raising. Opponents may think, “What are they doing?” because your line can be hard to interpret. But you also miss chances to grow the pot, and you may end up winning less than you could.In everyday life, you keep your social circle small, and even when someone invites you out, you might go reluctantly. You avoid conflict, don’t push your opinions, and prioritize staying out of trouble. That caution can protect you—but if you share your ideas and strengths a little more, you might catch opportunities you didn’t expect. Playing it safe feels comfortable, but one brave step at the right moment can expand your world.Your play style shouldn’t be fixed, but what about your personality?Professional poker players change styles based on the situation and adjust to their opponents. The same idea applies to many parts of life. You don’t need to think, “I’m naturally loose passive, so that’s just who I am,” or “I have to stay tight aggressive forever.” Flexibility is what creates better outcomes.In poker, people often say it’s best to start with Tight Aggressive. It reduces mistakes and makes it easier to build confidence through early success. But once you gain experience, you also need to open up your range little by little, or take a more passive line depending on how opponents play. Life works the same way: when you stop clinging to fixed assumptions and shift your position based on your environment and relationships, you start seeing new possibilities.Conclusion: Are poker and life similar?The four poker play styles can sometimes act like a mirror that reflects personality. Loose Aggressive players energize the room. Loose Passive players are kind and easily influenced. Tight Aggressive players are strategic and rational. Tight Passive players are cautious and safety-oriented. Which one feels closest to you?In poker, the strongest players are the ones who can adapt their strategy to the table and their opponents. In life, too, you get better results when you avoid rigid thinking, break out of your shell when needed, or sometimes go with the flow. A multi-angle approach often works best.So the next time you pick up cards—or step into a new relationship or business opportunity—what “style” will your personality choose? Use these four poker play styles as a hint for your next move. It might be the spark that makes your life a little richer and a lot more interesting.

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Poker Probability Basics Every Beginner Should KnowBasics

Poker Probability Basics Every Beginner Should Know

Why Probability Matters in PokerPoker is a game where short-term luck swings happen, but over a large sample, results tend to move toward your expected value (EV). In other words, you might win thanks to a lucky run, but if you ignore probability and EV, you’re far more likely to lose money in the long run.On the other hand, if you learn the basics of poker probability and keep making +EV decisions, variance may still swing your results, but your long-term profit becomes much more achievable. Some players think, “Memorizing probabilities sounds hard…” But you don’t need perfect recall of every number from day one. Start with the highest-priority fundamentals, apply them at the table, and deepen your understanding over time.The First Concepts to Learn: Pot Odds and Required EquityThe first thing beginners should learn is how to think in terms of pot odds and required equity. Poker constantly forces decisions: call or fold, raise or not. If you can compare the amount you must pay with the potential return in the pot, and check whether your chance of winning is high enough, you’ll stop putting money in clearly losing spots.What Are Pot Odds?Pot odds describe the ratio between the chips you must call and the total pot you can win if you win the hand.ExampleThere are 200 chips in the potYour opponent bets 100 chipsYou must call 100 chips, and if you win you can take a total of 400 chips (the original 200 + opponent’s 100 + your 100 call)In this case, the odds are 400 ÷ 100 = 4 to 1. That means if you expect to win at least 1 out of 4 times (about 25%), calling is +EV.Common Rules of ThumbIf your opponent bets half the potRequired equity: about 25%If your opponent bets the size of the potRequired equity: about 33%If your opponent bets 2x the potRequired equity: about 40%Once you build an instinct for bet sizing and required equity, decisions become much easier.2. Learn Outs and the 2% and 4% RuleNext, learn the concept of outs, the cards that improve your hand to a likely winner, and a simple way to estimate your drawing probability. You don’t need to memorize everything, but you should have a feel for questions like “What’s the chance I complete my flush by the river?”The 2% and 4% RuleIf you only get to see one more card (turn or river), your chance to hit is roughly: outs × 2%If you can see two cards (turn and river), your chance to hit is roughly: outs × 4%Example: Flush draw (9 outs)For example: 9h 6h Ah Jh NChance to complete on the next card: 9 × 2% = about 18%Chance with two cards to come: 9 × 4% = about 36%These are approximations, but they’re accurate enough for fast in-game decisions. With practice, you’ll naturally think, “I’ll get there about 20% of the time” without doing slow math.3. Memorize Probabilities for Common SituationsIn real games, you’ll face the same spots over and over. Instead of calculating every time, it helps to memorize a few high-frequency probabilities. Here are some key examples.Common Probability ExamplesChance of being dealt a pocket pair: about 5.9% (1 in 17)If you feel like you “never get pairs,” this number helps set expectations. Waiting for a specific pocket pair like AA is much rarer, at about 1 in 220.Chance to make at least one pair on the flop:If you start with an unpaired hand, the probability of flopping one pair or better is about 32%. That means you only “hit” around 1 in 3 times. Many players complain, “I have AK and I never connect!” But statistically, that’s normal.Draw probabilities (flush draws and straight draws):If you hold a suited hand, the chance of flopping a flush draw is about 1 in 11, so it doesn’t happen that often. With connectors, the chance of flopping an open-ended straight draw is roughly 9–10%. If you feel like you “don’t get draws,” that’s also completely standard.When you understand these frequencies, you stop overvaluing hands and you can calmly accept that missing is normal and hitting in certain spots is rare.4. Probability Also Improves Your Bluff StrategyProbability doesn’t just help with call-or-fold decisions. It also makes your bluffing more logical. For example, when you’re almost certainly beaten on the river, you can calculate how often your opponent must fold for your bluff to be profitable.Say the pot is 100 chips and you make a 50-chip bluff bet. If you get called, you lose 50 chips. If your opponent folds, you win 100 chips. So how often do they need to fold for this bluff to show a profit? Because what you lose when called is half of what you win when they fold, you need your opponent to fold at least one-third of the time. In other words, even if you think “they’ll probably call,” if they fold 1 out of 3 times or more, this bluff is profitable.In general, bigger bets generate more folds, but they also require a higher success rate. Use the benchmarks below to choose a bluff size that maximizes EV.Required Success Rate for Common Bluff SizesBluffing half-potRequired success rate: about 33%Bluffing pot-sizedRequired success rate: 50%Bluffing 2x potRequired success rate: about 67%When you think in terms of required success rate, you stop making simplistic decisions like “They’ll call too often, so I won’t bluff.” Instead, you can say, “If I can make them fold this often, the bluff is worth it,” and back your play with solid logic.Conclusion: Move Beyond “Guessing” with Poker ProbabilityPoker blends psychology and strategy, but probability always sits underneath it all. If you play without understanding the math, you end up relying on luck and often lose over the long run. If you learn basic probability, you can explain why a play is correct, and why a call is a mistake, with clear reasoning.The key is not to chase perfection. At first, rough instincts are enough, like “I’ll hit about 1 in 3 times,” or “With two cards to come, outs × 4%.” As you play more hands, you can steadily improve your accuracy.Once you build a foundation in poker probability, the game becomes much clearer. Use this as a starting point, get comfortable with the numbers, and enjoy a more strategic and rewarding poker experience.

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Beginner Must-Read: Poker Etiquette and Rules to Know Before Visiting an Amusement Poker VenueBasics

Beginner Must-Read: Poker Etiquette and Rules to Know Before Visiting an Amusement Poker Venue

IntroductionIn recent years, poker has been steadily growing in popularity across Japan. With more chances to see glamorous international tournament scenes on TV and YouTube, many people find themselves thinking, “I want to try that!” At the same time, amusement casinos and poker venues are rapidly increasing, especially in Tokyo. As a result, plenty of players start with online poker and then decide to take the next step into live, face-to-face play.But when you actually consider walking into a brick-and-mortar poker venue, it’s normal to feel nervous: “Is there etiquette I should know?” “I don’t understand chips or how to act.” “Will I stand out as a beginner?” In this article, we’ll cover the essential live poker manners, rules, and a few practical tips to learn before your first visit. Know these basics, and your first time at an amusement poker venue will be much more enjoyable.1. Understand the Differences Between Online and Live PokerIn online poker, the software automatically handles chip calculations and determines the winner. In live poker, the dealer physically deals the cards, and you handle your own chips. Even if you’re comfortable online, the hands-on nature of live play can feel unfamiliar at first.For example, chip denominations are color-coded, but you must calculate and put out the correct amount yourself. Online, you can click once to call or raise. Live, you need to place chips into the pot and make a clear action. If you understand these differences ahead of time, your first live session will go much more smoothly.2. Core Etiquette: Clear Actions and Proper Chip HandlingMake your action clear with your voice or an obvious gestureIn poker, you must clearly communicate your action (call, raise, fold, and so on). Vague hand signals, speaking too quietly, or simply tapping the table after hesitating can confuse the table.If you’re new, don’t be shy. Saying “Call,” “Raise to 2,000,” or “Fold” out loud is the safest approach. It helps the dealer and other players understand your intent and prevents unnecessary disputes.Watch out for the one-chip ruleOne of the most common beginner mistakes is the one-chip call rule. When there’s a bet in front of you, tossing in a single high-denomination chip is often treated as a call, not a raise.For example, if you need to call 500 and you put in one 5,000 chip without saying anything, it will be ruled a call. If you want to raise, announce “Raise” before putting in the 5,000 chip, or put in a clear raising amount (such as 5,000 plus additional chips) so your intention is unmistakable.Keep your chips visibleArrange your stack so other players can easily see it, with larger-denomination chips placed toward the front. If big chips are hidden and discovered later, it can disrupt decisions and create distrust at the table. A fair game depends on everyone being able to accurately gauge each other’s stacks.3. Make Fold and Check Motions ClearShow your fold by releasing your cards forwardWhen you fold, either say “Fold” or push your cards toward the center of the table and let go. If you keep holding your cards while thinking, other players may assume you’ve already acted. Even without speaking, clearly releasing your cards communicates a fold.Check by lightly tapping the tableYou can say “Check,” but a common live poker signal is a light tap on the table with your fingers. Avoid confusing movements like clasping your hands or shifting around in a way that looks like an action. If you’re unsure, simply say “Check” out loud.4. Live-Only Situations and How to Handle ThemBe careful of acting out of turnIf you announce a fold or call before it’s your turn, you can influence other players’ decisions. Acting out of turn is widely disliked and can compromise the fairness of the game. Always wait until the action is on you.If an opponent acts by mistakeFor example, if someone accidentally declares a call early, that declaration may be considered binding to some extent. However, the exact ruling depends on the house rules and the venue’s policy, and the floor manager makes the final decision. As a player, knowing the rules helps you avoid getting put at a disadvantage. If you’re unsure, don’t hesitate to ask the dealer or staff. Everyone starts as a beginner, and staff are used to helping new players.5. Handling Your Cards and Showdown EtiquetteKeep your cards privateBe careful not to lift your cards too high or expose them to people around you. Looking at your hand smoothly takes practice, but as a beginner, it’s fine to go slowly and peek at your cards close to the table.At showdown, table both cards togetherWhen you reveal your hand at the end, place both cards face up on the table side by side. Flipping them one at a time can cause confusion. Showing your full hand clearly helps the dealer confirm the winner quickly and accurately.6. Communicating with Staff and Other PlayersAt a new poker venue, the fastest way to get comfortable is to ask the staff when you don’t understand something. If a rule is unclear, ask without hesitation.Also, consider light, friendly communication with other players. A poker table is both a competitive environment and a social space. You don’t need to force conversation, but a simple greeting or “Nice to meet you” can ease tension and make the experience more relaxed.ConclusionLive poker has an atmosphere you can’t get online. Handling real chips and taking action while everyone watches can feel intimidating at first. But you’ll be fine, because everyone starts as a beginner. Once you learn the basic rules and etiquette, you’ll be able to focus more on the game and play with confidence.Making your live poker debut at an amusement venue is a first step into a new world. Learn the rules and manners, and enjoy the unique excitement of live poker, where players face each other across the table. As your play becomes smoother, you’ll sit down next time feeling comfortable and ready to compete.

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3 Essential Poker Math Concepts: Master Odds, MDF, and AlphaBasics

3 Essential Poker Math Concepts: Master Odds, MDF, and Alpha

Poker is a game where you play without knowing key information like “the hand your opponent holds” or “which cards will come on future streets.” That’s why, if you want to get better at poker, you need a solid understanding of probability. In this article, we’ll cover three especially important concepts:OddsMDFAlpha1. OddsMany people have heard the word “odds” before. In horse racing, for example, it’s used to describe how many times your stake is paid back if your prediction is correct. In poker, it’s used in a similar way: it tells you how many times the chips you put in will come back to you when you win.During a hand, you face repeated decisions, and your goal is to choose the most profitable action whenever possible. Odds are a key tool for judging whether a decision is profitable.Let’s look at an example. Consider the following situation:Heads-up on the riverPot is 100Your opponent bets 50You must choose between calling or foldingIf you call, you need to put in 50. If you win, you receive the original 100 in the pot plus both players’ 50 chips, for a total of 200. So the odds are 200 ÷ 50 = 4. In other words, when you win, you get back 4 times what you called. That means if you expect to win at least 1 out of 4 times, calling is profitable. When your equity is high enough relative to the odds, you say “the odds are good” (you’re getting the right price). When your equity isn’t high enough, you say “the odds are bad” (you’re not getting the right price).Once you understand odds, you can calculate how much equity you need for a call to be profitable. Instead of vaguely thinking “I’m probably ahead, so I’ll call” or “I’m probably behind, so I’ll fold,” you can make decisions based on logic and math.Key pointsOdds = how many times your invested chips are returned when you winUnderstanding odds tells you how much equity you need for a profitable call2. MDF and AlphaMDF and alpha are paired concepts, so we’ll explain them together. MDF stands for Minimum Defense Frequency. It’s a guideline for how often you should defend (by calling or raising) versus an opponent’s bet. On the other hand, alpha represents the required success frequency for a bluff to be profitable. Let’s use an example. Consider this spot:Heads-up between Player A and Player B on the riverPot is 100Player A bets 50Player B must choose between calling or foldingAssume Player B calls only half the time. From Player A’s perspective, by betting 50 (half the pot), they make Player B fold 1 out of 2 times. If Player A holds a hand with 0% equity and bluffs for 50, then 50% of the time they get called and lose 50, and 50% of the time they make Player B fold and win the 100 pot. In that case, Player A could profit by bluffing every time with losing hands.So how can Player B prevent Player A from profiting too easily with bluffs? If Player B calls, Player A loses 50. If Player B folds, Player A wins 100. That means Player A’s bluff becomes profitable if they can make Player B fold at least 1 out of 3 times. This fold frequency is called alpha. Conversely, Player B can prevent being bluffed too often by calling at least 2 out of 3 times versus this bet. That calling frequency is MDF.How to calculate MDF and alphaFirst, think from the bluffer’s perspective. Let x be the amount you risk to bluff, and y be the amount you win when the bluff succeeds. If the bluff success frequency is a, then the expected value of the bluff is:(1-a)(-x)+ay=(x+y)a-xFor this expected value to be positive:(x+y)a-x>0a>x/(x+y)So alpha can be calculated as x/(x+y).Conversely, if you keep your opponent’s bluff success frequency at or below x/(x+y), they can’t profit by bluffing indiscriminately. Therefore, MDF is 1 - x/(x+y).Important noteMDF is only a shield that prevents an opponent from profiting by bluffing with any two cards. You should only think in terms of MDF when your opponent is capable of bluffing at an appropriate frequency. If your opponent almost never bluffs, calling according to MDF will simply increase your losses. Against those players, you should call only with sufficiently strong hands.Key pointsMDF = the defense frequency that prevents your opponent’s bluffs from being automatically profitableAlpha = the required success frequency for a bluff to be profitableAlpha = (chips risked to bluff) / (chips risked to bluff + chips won when it works)MDF = 1 - alphaConclusionHow was it? If you want to profit in poker, you can’t avoid learning probability. By playing while thinking about the concepts introduced here, you’ll gradually make more profitable decisions. Try applying them in real games.

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